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Take the WSJ, which is already a paid model for much of its content. You can get it all for free by simply entering a story's headline into Google. The paper has this back door to optimize search - without it their stories would be about as statistically relevant as the average diatribing blogger.
But without the back door, WSJ couldn't charge as much for advertising. Nor can it operate without it when there is so much free content.
Furthermore, there will always be content providers online who regurgitate what they've read in the papers whathaveyou. Inevitably, this will hurt the pay-players. Think of the Web like the company watercooler - where people come to trade stories...a newsstand the Web is not.
Secondly, your little editorial at the end of the article makes no sense. "Free content has been free since the TV was invented," you say. I guess you've never heard of "pay TV," better known as Cable TV? Most American's pay for their TV content. And, soon, most will pay for their Internet content, too.
As for Goodby's comment, that people will read advertising that's relevant to them -- that may be true. But in Garfield's defense, the premise behind his book is that most sites on the Internet don't deliver the audience that a mass market hit on TV broadcast does (say, the Superbowl). And if TV and other forms of mass market advertising die before Internet media are capable of replacing that audience, the overall impact on the ad industry could be disastrous, as marketers simply won't be willing to spend the same dollars to chase fewer eyeballs. (After all, not every campaign can go "viral," to use a well-worn online advertising cliché.)